Strategy vs buy-and-hold BTC, on real US spot-ETF flow history and Bitget daily candles. Runs in your browser, the code below is the report (view source to reproduce).
For each day we take the BTC US spot-ETF net inflow (SoSoValue) and a regime read from the trailing 5 days. Signal: go LONG BTC for the next day when the trailing 5-day net inflow is positive and at least 3 of the last 5 days had inflows (risk-on), otherwise stay FLAT (cash). Entry uses the prior day signal only, no lookahead. Strategy daily return = position × BTC daily return. We compare against buy-and-hold. Data: SoSoValue etfs/summary-history (BTC, US) and Bitget BTCUSDT 1day candles, aligned by date.
Illustrative backtest on historical data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not investment advice.